Frailty
Explains Complexity
As
explained in the video posted by It’s So Blatant (ISB) (2013), “mathematical
concepts are often not well understood by the general public”; yet, “the image
of a small, frail butterfly” and the subsequent flap of its wings in Brazil
followed by a “tornado in Texas” is not only poetic; it is easier to
understand. This is the very essence of that which Obolensky (2010) presents as
“Lorenz’s Strange Attractor”, the underlying explanation of today’s chaos
theory (p. 65). As ISB (2013) explains, Lorenz took something as complex as the
atmosphere and simplified it to such a degree, the atmospheric phenomenon which
Lorenz sought to study through weather simulators was reduced to a model
represented by three letters: X, Y, and Z and an equation that may not reside
in reality. Failing to provide a title for the presentation Lorenz would deliver
in 1972; the organizer, rather than name the presentation “Deterministic
Non-Periodic Flow”, the title of Lorenz’s 1963 published research, poses a
question about predictability using imagery as opposed to mathematical formulas
(ISB, 2013; Obolensky, 2010, p. 65).
Growing
up in Florida presents a wonderful way to see “the butterfly effect” on a
regular basis between the months of June and November, hurricane season
(Obolensky, 2010, p. 65). National and local meteorologists stand before
weather maps and begin to note small disturbances gathering off the north-west
coast of Africa. What begins as a relatively small collection of yellow and
green dots, indicating precipitation, changes on a weekly, daily, and hourly
basis; and, eventually becomes the counter-clockwise rotating, massive, pinwheel
shaped cloud we all recognize and know. A small tropical disturbance traverses
across the Atlantic and grows to a Category 5 hurricane, complete with a name,
and destroys the lives of thousands living in New Orleans, Homestead, New York,
or New Jersey. Intellectually, we know the atmospheric conditions that begin,
evolve, and result in a hurricane are tracked with mathematical approximations,
resulting in the various paths the hurricane may take. Formulas, equations,
graphs, and many variables help to explain the occurrence; but, as ISB (2013)
notes, the eyes of the general public gloss over with such technical
explanations. It’s easier to use the imagery of a butterfly, slowly flapping
its wings off the coast of Africa, and have the flapping increase such that the
butterfly transforms into the spinning image of the hurricane; or, as we see, a
small group of yellow and green dots, grow and join other tropical disturbances
or depressions and form the massive, easily recognizable white spinning cloud
with an eye at its center. This same principle is seen in the business world,
too.
Nathan
Eagle (n.d.) of txteagle, applied the benefits of falling market prices for “unlocked
GSM phones” and brought about big changes in East Africa (p.1). Lower phone
prices meant more folks could own phones and take advantage of its many
features, including texting. Day laborers could organize through text rather
than congregating throughout Nairobi awaiting daily work orders. A small change
to an “SMS server application” allowed for the transfer of phone airtime; and,
as a result, nurses provided blood level totals before shortages were realized
(Eagle, n.d., p. 2). The ability to transfer small amounts of cell phone
airtime provided an added form of currency; and, as a result, workers in East
Africa can receive “an airtime transfer to their phones in lieu of a cash payment” (Eagle, n.d., p. 3). Transferring
airtime led to the rise of Safaricom as “the largest bank in East Africa”
(Eagle, n.d., p. 3). The greatest change brought about by Eagle’s observation
of falling prices and the abilities of the mobile phone is the impact on the
lives of many throughout East Africa. Translations of different languages are
being translated. Citizens are able to report the news. Better surveys and
market research are now available. Supplemental incomes are being earned by
many which help pay utilities, put food on the table, and lead to more mobile
phone ownership which leads to more paid work (Eagle, n.d.). A device typically
taken for granted in the West has empowered thousands in the East. While Eagle’s
achievement has had a global impact, Lorenz’s “butterfly effect” can impact
local organizations, too.
While
employed as a Senior Underwriter for American Pioneer Life Insurance, in the
early 1990s, a small change led to big changes with the communication process
between the company and its field agents. The primary method of communication
was either a written letter, or the use of a five-part NCR, hand-written form
wherein the original was mailed to the writing agent and copies were mailed to hierarchal
agents. Agents working with underwrites who had legible handwriting were
fortunate. The NCR form listed all underwriting requirements. The underwriter
was to check off the necessary medical requirements and the agent was to
schedule his or her client for requirements such as medical examinations and
blood work. Often times, agents could not read the handwriting; or, they would
schedule and order requirements simply because they were listed; and, not
required. Often times, the head of our data processing department would eat
lunch in the employee break room. I was able to chat with him and he would tell
me of new programs being developed. Such was the case that led to a simple
five-digit computer code.
At
the time, word processing was in its infancy. We were transitioning from the
Daisy-wheel typewriter to basic word processing. He not only told me about the
new program, he showed me how it operated. I was able to explain to him the
problems we were having in Underwriting and with agents who were ordering
unnecessary requirements for which the company incurred the cost. We sat down
with the NCR form. Underwriting must follow guidelines established by its
reinsurers; however, when all requirements are listed on a pre-printed form,
confusion and ordering unnecessary requirements follows. New business data
entry already allowed for the name and address of the writing agent, along with
the name of the applicant and file number to be identified. I took the NCR
form, developed five-digit codes for each requirement, and by working with data
processing, our new communication process began. Instead of handwriting each
NCR form, the underwriter indicated necessary requirements in each case file.
The underwriting assistant entered the code for the particular requirement. The
computer was able to pull the writing agent’s name and address, list the
applicant and file number, print only the necessary requirements and
underwriting comments, and list hierarchal agents for copying purposes. We
saved printing costs as NCR forms are expensive to print. We saved underwriting
costs as we were no longer paying for examinations and blood work not needed.
More importantly, we developed a more efficient and effective way to
communicate with our field force, one soon applied to our Claims Department. The
chaos of a five-part NCR form had been simplified with a five-digit computer
code.
In
2006, the Flagler County Clerk of Court provided a rather archaic way in which those
seeking to participate in foreclosure sales had to understand. Customers from
Jacksonville and Volusia County drove to Flagler County on an almost daily
basis. Each would request stacks and stacks of existing and new foreclosure
cases. Clerks had to pull the files, stay at the front counter while the files
were reviewed, and then re-file the cases. Further, instructions for foreclosure
sales were pre-printed and not provided unless the customer knew to ask for them.
After being assigned to conduct foreclosure sales, I sought to bring order to a
system that did not make sense. We were just beginning to scan documents as a
part of a new records keeping process. We already had a website through which
some information could be located. My simple change included posting the
foreclosure sale instructions online so that potential bidders would know what
to bring to a sale and the timeline that had to be followed. Additionally,
customers from Jacksonville and Volusia had told me they only review the Notice
of Sale, found in the case file. By posting the Notice of Sale online, they no
longer had to travel and clerks no longer had to pull stacks of files, stay at
the counter, and refile those same files. Finally, daily phone calls to
determine the number of new foreclosure cases that had been filed were replaced
by posting a list of new cases on the website. Three new tabs: Sale
Information, Sale Dates, and New Cases transformed the foreclosure division of
the Clerk of Court.
As
Obolensky (2010) provides, “the Law of Conservation of Energy… summarized as:
the effort you put in will dictate the result you get out” enforces the notion
of hard work instilled in me at a very young age; however, I believe concepts
such as the “butterfly effect” and other theories that provide the foundation
for adaptive, complex leadership are designed to help leaders understand an
equally important concept, the idea of working smarter, not harder (p. 66).
Yukl (2013) observes “large organizations… have an inertia that is difficult to
overcome. People resist change that threatens their status and power,
contradicts their value and beliefs, or requires learning new ways of doing
things” (p. 284-85). The new changes had their chaotic moments at first; but,
with patience and refining processes, customers were better served and savings
were realized. Each change was very simplistic in nature; yet, each yielded big
results, the epitome of a butterfly flapping its wings to bring about a
tornado.
References
Eagle,
N. (n.d.). txteagle: Mobile Crowdsourcing. MIT
Media Laboratory and The Santa
Fe Institute.
Retrieved from
http://realitycommons.media.mit.edu/pdfs/hcii_txteagle.pdf
It’s So Blatant. (2013, Sept. 13). Chaos|Chapter 7: Strange
Attractors – The butterfly effect.
[Video
file]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAJkLh76QnM
Obolensky, N. (2010). Complex
Adaptive Leadership. (2nd ed.). London, UK: Gower/
Ashgate.
Yukl, G. (2013). Leadership in Organizations. (8th
ed.). Boston, MA: Pearson Education, Inc.
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